ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWO-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015 400 AM CDT MON JUN 01 2015 The tropical depression is producing a large area of deep convection with very cold cloud tops, however, the convection does not appear to have become significantly better organized overnight. Satellite intensity estimates are T2.0 on the Dvorak scale and the initial intensity is held at 30 kt. The strong northwesterly shear that is currently affecting the tropical cyclone is forecast to decrease significantly during the next 12 to 24 hours. This should allow the depression to strengthen into a tropical storm later today. By Tuesday, the cyclone is expected to be within a low shear environment and over very warm waters. These conditions favor a faster rate of intensification and the NHC forecast follows the SHIPS guidance, which calls for the cyclone to become a hurricane in about 48 hours, and obtain major hurricane status in 3 to 4 days. The intensity forecast is also supported by the global model guidance, which significantly deepen the cyclone in 2 to 3 days. The center has been extremely difficult to locate overnight, so the initial motion of 305/5 is much more uncertain than normal. Overall, little motion is forecast during the next few days while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow. After 72 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen over northern Mexico. This should cause the cyclone to begin moving northwestward at a faster forward speed. The NHC forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and the GFS ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 01/0900Z 13.3N 104.0W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 01/1800Z 13.7N 104.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 02/0600Z 13.7N 104.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 36H 02/1800Z 13.6N 105.1W 55 KT 65 MPH 48H 03/0600Z 13.4N 105.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 04/0600Z 13.1N 105.6W 90 KT 105 MPH 96H 05/0600Z 14.5N 106.9W 105 KT 120 MPH 120H 06/0600Z 17.5N 109.5W 105 KT 120 MPH $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN