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TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT FRI JUN 12 2015

Carlos continues to be affected by northeasterly shear with the
center on the north side of the convection.  While an overnight
microwave pass showed some increase in organization of the inner
core, radar from Acapulco and the latest satellite images
suggest that the system has become less organized since then.
Dvorak estimates are about the same as six hours ago, so the initial
wind speed will remain 50 kt.

The storm is essentially stationary, caught in an area of light
steering between a distant mid-level trough over the western Gulf of
Mexico and a ridge over northwestern Mexico.  Little net motion is
expected until late this weekend, when the ridge builds over Mexico.
 This pattern change should cause Carlos to move toward the
west-northwest, nearly parallel to the coast of Mexico, into early
next week at an increasing forward speed. A trough over the
southwestern United States is forecast to dig into northwestern
Mexico, which could cause the storm to take a turn toward the
northwest by Tuesday.  The latest NHC forecast is very similar to
the previous one through three days, and then is adjusted a bit to
the east to reflect the latest consensus guidance.

The intensity forecast is tricky because there are a lot of
competing factors.  During the next day or two, the
northeasterly shear is forecast to persist, so only a gradual
intensification of Carlos is anticipated.  Thereafter, although the
shear is expected to become light, warm upper-level temperatures and
drier air in the mid-levels could keep Carlos from significantly
strengthening.  By day 5, cooler waters and a more stable atmosphere
should help to weaken Carlos.  The latest intensity guidance has
come down from the last cycle, which makes some sense given the
limiting factors above.  The official NHC wind speed prediction is
reduced from the previous one, although it remains on the high side
of the guidance.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  12/1500Z 14.7N 100.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 12H  13/0000Z 14.8N 100.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  13/1200Z 14.9N 100.9W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  14/0000Z 15.4N 101.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 48H  14/1200Z 15.9N 102.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  15/1200Z 17.0N 104.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 96H  16/1200Z 18.7N 106.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
120H  17/1200Z 21.5N 108.0W   50 KT  60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Blake

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