ZCZC MIATCDEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL STORM CARLOS DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 AM CDT SUN JUN 14 2015

The convective pattern of Carlos has eroded slightly since the
previous advisory and AMSU microwave satellite imagery indicates
that the western half of the eyewall has deteriorated as well.
Based on a blend of available satellite intensity estimates, the
initial intensity has been lowered to 60 kt.

The initial motion estimate is an uncertain 320/02 kt. Steering
currents are expected to gradually strengthen as a mid-level ridge
over northern Mexico slowly builds to the north of Carlos. The ridge
should force the cyclone on a slow west-northwestward track just
offshore of the southern coast of Mexico for the next 48 hours or
so. As Carlos nears the western periphery of the ridge by 72 hours,
the cyclone should turn northwestward to north-northwestward and
could move inland.  Assuming landfall occurs, the high terrain of
the Sierra Madre del Sur mountains would keep the main circulation
of Carlos from moving very far inland on days 4 and 5. The global
and regional models are in decent agreement on this scenario, and
the official forecast track lies close to but is a little slower
than the previous advisory track, following a blend of the consensus
model TVCN and the FSSE model.

Sea-surface temperature data from Remote Sensing Systems this
morning indicate that a pool of cooler water has indeed upwelled
beneath Carlos, as alluded to in the previous discussion.  The
colder water, in combination with some dry mid-level downslope flow
and modest northeasterly vertical wind shear, has likely caused the
short term weakening of the cyclone. However, with Carlos expected
to begin moving away from the region of upwelling and into an
environment of light shear later today, restrengthening back
to hurricane status is forecast to occur by late tonight or Monday
morning. Further slow strengthening is expected until landfall
occurs. The intensity forecast in the latter part of the forecast
period remains highly uncertain since it depends on the extent to
which Carlos will interact with the Mexican landmass by day 3 and
beyond. The NHC intensity forecast is a blend of the SHIPS intensity
model and the previous intensity forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  14/1500Z 15.9N 100.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  15/0000Z 16.3N 101.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 24H  15/1200Z 16.8N 102.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  16/0000Z 17.3N 102.8W   70 KT  80 MPH
 48H  16/1200Z 17.9N 103.6W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  17/1200Z 20.2N 104.9W   50 KT  60 MPH...INLAND
 96H  18/1200Z 21.9N 105.3W   30 KT  35 MPH...INLAND
120H  19/1200Z 23.8N 105.8W   20 KT  25 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

NNNN