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BULLETIN
HURRICANE CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  26
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
1000 PM CDT TUE JUN 16 2015

...HURRICANE CARLOS WEAKENING...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.2N 104.5W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Carlos was
located near latitude 18.2 North, longitude 104.5 West. Carlos is
moving toward the northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), which is expected
to continue for the next couple of days until dissipation.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher
gusts.  Substantial weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours
and Carlos is anticipated to become a tropical storm on Wednesday
and a tropical depression by Thursday.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the
center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles
(75 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb (29.18 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area through Wednesday night.  Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area through Wednesday.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce heavy rains in the Mexican
states of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit, Durango, and Sinaloa
with rainfall accumulations of 3 to 6 inches possible through
Friday.  Isolated maximum amounts of 10 inches are also possible.
These rains may produce life-threatening flash floods and mud
slides, especially in areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Landsea

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