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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CARLOS ADVISORY NUMBER  27
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP032015
400 AM CDT WED JUN 17 2015

...CARLOS RAPIDLY WEAKENING...
...APPROACHING THE COAST OF WESTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.0N 104.8W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM W OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.35 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Punta San Telmo to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Carlos was
located near latitude 19.0 North, longitude 104.8 West. Carlos is
moving toward the north-northwest near 7 mph (11 km/h) and this
general motion is expected to continue until dissipation occurs
Friday.  On this forecast track, the center of Carlos will cross the
coast in the Tropical Storm Warning area today and move over the
western coast of Mexico tonight.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph (100 km/h)
with higher gusts.  Further rapid weakening is expected as Carlos
moves over the coast, and the cyclone is expected to become a
remnant low Thursday morning as it moves off of the coast of western
Mexico and into the southern Gulf of California.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.35 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning
area today.

RAINFALL:  Carlos is expected to produce additional rainfall
accumulations of 1 to 3 inches across the the Mexican states of
Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, Nayarit through Friday.  These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mud slides, especially in
areas of higher terrain.

SURF:  Swells associated with Carlos will continue to affect the
coast of southwestern Mexico during the next day or two.  These
swells could cause life-threatening surf and rip currents.  Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

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