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HURRICANE DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
900 PM MDT THU JUL 16 2015

Dolores's convective cloud pattern continues to deteriorate with a
significant erosion of deep convection having occurred in the
western semicircle since the previous advisory. However, the
eyewall convection has changed little and the eye has contracted
down to about a 15-nmi diameter. A blend of Dvorak CI numbers
from TAFB and SAB, along UW-CIMSS ADT values, supports lowering the
initial intensity to 85 kt for this advisory.

The initial motion estimate is 310/08 kt. Dolores has made a
noticeable jog toward the northwest during the past 6 hours, which
was likely due to the aforementioned convective asymmetry that has
developed. However, this should just be a short term motion and a
turn back toward the west-northwest is expected later tonight, and
then continue for another 36 hours or so. After that, the cyclone is
forecast to turn toward the northwest and north-northwest as Dolores
skirts along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge that
extends westward from the U.S Southern Plains across northern Mexico
and Baja California. The NHC forecast track is to the right of the
previous advisory track, mainly to account for the more northerly
initial position, and lies close to the multi-model consensus TVCE
and the FSSE model.

Dolores is forecast to move over progressively cooler waters during
the 5-day period, reaching sub-26C SSTs within the next 12 hours or
so and moving over 23C water temperatures by 48 hours. The result
should be continued erosion of Dolores's convective pattern along
with steady weakening. Dolores is expected to become a remnant low
pressure system in 72 hours, if not sooner. The official intensity
forecast is similar to the previous advisory, and closely follows
the ICON intensity consensus model.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  17/0300Z 20.8N 113.2W   85 KT 100 MPH
 12H  17/1200Z 21.2N 114.4W   75 KT  85 MPH
 24H  18/0000Z 21.7N 116.0W   65 KT  75 MPH
 36H  18/1200Z 22.7N 117.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 72H  20/0000Z 28.7N 121.2W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  21/0000Z 30.5N 122.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H  22/0000Z 30.2N 123.4W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Stewart

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