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TROPICAL STORM DOLORES DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP052015
800 AM PDT SAT JUL 18 2015

Dolores's low-level center is becoming increasingly separated from
the remaining deep convection, which is hanging back over the
warmer water to the south.  Dvorak CI numbers range from 30-35 kt,
and the initial intensity is therefore conservatively set at 35 kt.
Cold water ahead of the cyclone should continue the current
weakening trend, and Dolores should become a remnant low within 24
hours once all the deep convection near the center dissipates.  The
remnant low should then dissipate by day 4 southwest of the southern
California coast.  The NHC intensity forecast is close to the GFS
and the consensus of the hurricane intensity models (IVCN).

Dolores has turned northwestward, or 315/9 kt, in the flow between
a subtropical ridge over northern Mexico and a deep-layer trough
west of California.  The cyclone is expected to accelerate toward
the north-northwest during the next couple of days and then drift
northward or northeastward by day 3 when it's left in weak
low-level flow.  The NHC track forecast is a little to the east of
the previous forecast during the first 12-24 hours to account for
the recent turn toward the northwest, but otherwise it is very
similar after 24 hours.  This solution is very close to the
GFS-ECMWF consensus.

Moisture associated with Dolores is expected to spread over the
southwestern United States over the next few days, increasing the
possibility of heavy rains and flash flooding over portions of
Arizona, southern California, and southern Nevada.  Please refer to
statements from your local weather office at www.weather.gov for
more information.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  18/1500Z 23.1N 118.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  19/0000Z 24.4N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  19/1200Z 26.7N 119.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  20/0000Z 29.2N 120.5W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  20/1200Z 30.9N 120.9W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  21/1200Z 31.5N 120.5W   15 KT  15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  22/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg

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