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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FELICIA DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP072015
800 PM PDT THU JUL 23 2015

Satellite images indicate that Felicia is weakening.  The low-level
center of the system is exposed and the associated deep convection
is confined to the southeastern quadrant of the circulation.  The
initial wind speed is lowered to 30 kt based on a blend of the
Dvorak classifications from TAFB, SAB, and UW-CIMSS ADT.  This
makes Felicia a tropical depression.  Since the depression is
already in a dry and stable airmass and will soon be over cool
water, continued weakening is predicted.  The official forecast
shows Felicia becoming a remnant low by 36 hours, but this could
occur even sooner.  The remnant low is expected to dissipate in 3
to 4 days.

Felicia is moving northwestward at about 11 kt.  The depression is
expected to turn to the west-northwest on Friday and to the west on
Saturday steered by the low-level flow.  The official track forecast
is similar to the previous one and in best agreement with a
consensus of the GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  24/0300Z 20.4N 116.6W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  24/1200Z 21.2N 117.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 24H  25/0000Z 22.0N 119.4W   25 KT  30 MPH
 36H  25/1200Z 22.6N 121.1W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  26/0000Z 22.8N 122.6W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  27/0000Z 23.0N 125.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  28/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

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