ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP192015
800 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2015

Tropical Depression Nineteen-E's cloud pattern has changed little
during the past 6-12 hours and consists of a persistent cluster of
deep convection near the low-level center and a lengthening band
extending to the north and northeast.  The maximum winds remain 30
kt based on Dvorak estimates of T2.0 from TAFB and SAB.  Although
the depression has not strengthened yet, low vertical shear, very
warm waters, and a moist atmosphere favor intensification
throughout the five-day forecast period.  As such, the NHC
intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one and shows
the depression reaching hurricane intensity in a couple of days.
The intensity models all show intensification to varying degrees,
and the official forecast closely follows the intensity consensus
through 48 hours but then is a little higher (close to the SHIPS
and LGEM models) on days 3 through 5.

The low-level center has been difficult to locate, but the
depression appears to be moving westward, or 270/11 kt.  An
elongated mid-level ridge is expected to remain north of the
depression for the next 3 days or so, but the ridge is expected
to weaken through the weekend as broad troughing develops west of
the Baja California peninsula.  This pattern change should cause the
cyclone to gradually slow down and turn west-northwestward by day 3
and northwestward by day 5.  With the exception of the UKMET model,
which does not show a northwestward turn by day 5, the remainder of
the track models are tightly clustered.  The updated NHC track
forecast is close to the multi-model consensus and essentially
unchanged from the previous forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  15/1500Z 10.2N 119.5W   30 KT  35 MPH
 12H  16/0000Z 10.1N 121.3W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  16/1200Z 10.0N 124.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  17/0000Z 10.0N 126.4W   55 KT  65 MPH
 48H  17/1200Z 10.0N 128.1W   65 KT  75 MPH
 72H  18/1200Z 10.8N 131.0W   85 KT 100 MPH
 96H  19/1200Z 12.0N 133.5W   90 KT 105 MPH
120H  20/1200Z 14.5N 136.0W   95 KT 110 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

NNNN