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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM PATRICIA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP202015
700 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

...PATRICIA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM OVER MEXICO...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.2N 102.2W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM...NE OF ZACATECAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...80 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Mexico has discontinued all of the warnings for
the coast of Mexico.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Patricia was
located near latitude 23.2 North, longitude 102.2 West. Patricia is
moving toward the north-northeast near 21 mph (33 km/h), and the
cyclone is forecast to move quickly north-northeastward farther
inland over central and northeastern Mexico today.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph (80 km/h) with
higher gusts.  Rapid weakening is expected to continue, and Patricia
is forecast to become a tropical depression later today and
dissipate tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 100 miles (160 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb (29.47 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND:  Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue near the
center through this morning, especially in higher elevations.

RAINFALL:  Patricia is expected to produce total rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of
20 inches, over the Mexican states of Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima,
Michoacan, and Guerrero through Saturday.  These rains are likely
to produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.

STORM SURGE:  Water levels are expected to gradually subside but
will remain above normal through late today.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

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