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TROPICAL STORM RICK DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP212015
100 PM PST SAT NOV 21 2015

Microwave data and visible imagery indicate that the center of
Rick is located farther south than estimated on the previous
advisory. This places the center a little closer to the deep
convection, but there remains little in the way of convective
banding. The initial intensity remains 35 kt based on a blend of
the latest Dvorak classifications from TAFB and SAB.

Satellite imagery shows dry, stable air working its way into the
northwestern quadrant of the cyclone. This dry air plus shear
increasing above 20 kt tonight should result in weakening, and Rick
is expected to become a remnant low by 36 hours. The remnant low
should gradually spin down and dissipate in about 4 days.

Satellite fixes indicate that Rick has taken a westward jog during
the past 6 to 12 hours, and the initial motion estimate is 275/10.
Despite this, the overall synoptic reasoning has not changed, and
Rick will gradually recurve in the next 2-3 days as it moves around
the western edge of the subtropical ridge. As Rick becomes a shallow
remnant low, it should move slowly northward until dissipation in
the weak low-level flow. The new NHC track forecast is to the left
of the previous one due to the initial position and motion, and is
close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT  21/2100Z 16.8N 115.9W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  22/0600Z 17.3N 117.2W   35 KT  40 MPH
 24H  22/1800Z 18.5N 118.8W   30 KT  35 MPH
 36H  23/0600Z 19.7N 119.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  23/1800Z 20.7N 120.4W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  24/1800Z 21.5N 120.5W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brennan

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