ZCZC MIATCPEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM BULLETIN HURRICANE SANDRA ADVISORY NUMBER 15 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP222015 200 AM MST FRI NOV 27 2015 ...SANDRA RAPIDLY LOSING PUNCH... SUMMARY OF 200 AM MST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.9N 109.3W ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA ABOUT 425 MI...680 KM SSW OF CULIACAN MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Baja California peninsula from Todos Santos to Los Barriles A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, in this case within 24 hours. Interests along the northern coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa should monitor the progress of Sandra. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK ------------------------------ At 200 AM MST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Sandra was located near latitude 18.9 North, longitude 109.3 West. Sandra is moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h), and this motion is expected to continue during the next day or two. On the forecast track, the core of Sandra is expected to pass to the south of the southern end of the Baja California peninsula Friday night or early Saturday, and approach the coast of the Mexican state of Sinaloa on Saturday. However, a small deviation to the left of the track could bring stronger winds to the southern extreme of the Baja California peninsula. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is forecast during the next day or so, and Sandra is forecast to weaken to a tropical storm during the next 24 hours, and become a remnant low on Saturday. Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 160 miles (260 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 969 mb (28.62 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area Saturday night and Sunday morning. RAINFALL: Sandra is expected to produce total rain accumulations of 4 to 6 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches over the Mexican states of Baja California Sur...Sinaloa...Sonora... Chihuahua...and far western Durango through Saturday night. This rainfall may produce life threatening flash floods and mudslides. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 500 AM MST. Next complete advisory at 800 AM MST. $$ Forecaster Avila NNNN