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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
400 PM CDT Sat Jul 02 2022
 
Radar data from the Nicaraguan Weather Service in Las Nubes and 
recent satellite imagery indicate that Bonnie has continued to 
become better organized throughout the day. The well-defined center 
of circulation and prominent banding south and west of the storm's 
center have persisted for the last several hours. SAB and TAFB 
both provided Dvorak estimates of 3.0/3.0, providing justification 
to increase the initial intensity to 45 kt for this advisory.
 
Bonnie is still moving due west at 270/14 kt, and the track 
forecast is largely unchanged from the prior advisory. A deep-layer 
ridge located north of the storm will be the primary steering 
influence throughout the forecast period as Bonnie turns 
west-northwestward and is forecast to remain offshore and roughly 
parallel to the coast of Central America and Mexico. The official 
forecast is very similar to the consensus track aids. Although the 
strongest winds are expected to remain offshore, interests in 
coastal El Salvador, Guatemala, and southwestern Mexico should 
continue to monitor Bonnie's track for the next few days, as any 
northward track adjustments could require tropical storm watches 
for portions of this coastline.
 
Some continued strengthening is expected in the next day or two as 
Bonnie is forecast to move over an area of warmer sea surface 
temperatures (SSTs) and relatively low vertical wind shear. For 
this reason, Bonnie is expected to reach hurricane strength in about
two days. The intensity forecast is near the center of the
guidance envelope, with some of the mesoscale hurricane models 
showing more rapid strengthening than the official forecast. 

 
KEY MESSAGES:
 
1. Heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua and Costa Rica will
continue tonight. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides are
expected.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  02/2100Z 11.3N  88.0W   45 KT  50 MPH
 12H  03/0600Z 11.4N  89.8W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  03/1800Z 12.0N  92.5W   55 KT  65 MPH
 36H  04/0600Z 12.8N  95.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  04/1800Z 13.7N  98.3W   70 KT  80 MPH
 60H  05/0600Z 14.6N 101.3W   75 KT  85 MPH
 72H  05/1800Z 15.2N 104.0W   75 KT  85 MPH
 96H  06/1800Z 15.9N 108.8W   75 KT  85 MPH
120H  07/1800Z 16.4N 112.9W   75 KT  85 MPH
 
$$
Forecaster Hogsett/Cangialosi
 
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