ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number 37 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042022 300 PM MDT Wed Jul 06 2022 The satellite presentation of Bonnie has not changed much since this morning. At times, the small eye has become a little more distinct and warmer in infrared satellite pictures, but then becomes cloud filled. This has led to a waffling of subjective Dvorak estimates between about T4.5 and T5.0 depending on the infrared eye temperature of each picture. Objective numbers remain lower, but have increased somewhat today. The initial intensity is maintained at 90 kt, and is based on the latest SAB Dvorak classification. Recent scatterometer data have helped confirm the 34- and 50-kt wind radii. Bonnie will be moving over gradually decreasing sea surface temperatures later tonight and into a drier and more stable environment which is likely to begin the weakening process. After that time, a faster rate of filling is forecast as Bonnie moves over sub 26C sea surface temperatures. The cyclone is forecast to become post-tropical in about 72 hours, and dissipate by the end of the 5-day forecast period. The updated NHC intensity forecast is closest to the lower LGEM guidance. Bonnie is moving on a motion between west and west-northwest at about 10 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of the system should continue to steer the cyclone westward to west-northwestward during the next couple of days. A faster and more westward motion is likely by 72 hours as Bonnie weakens and is steered by the low level trade wind flow. The new forecast is essentially an update of the previous advisory and it lies closest to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF tracks. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/2100Z 16.5N 110.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 07/0600Z 16.9N 111.8W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 07/1800Z 17.6N 114.4W 75 KT 85 MPH 36H 08/0600Z 18.2N 117.5W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 08/1800Z 18.8N 120.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 60H 09/0600Z 19.3N 124.5W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 09/1800Z 19.6N 128.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL 96H 10/1800Z 19.8N 135.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 11/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Brown NNNN