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Hurricane Bonnie Discussion Number  44
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
800 AM PDT Fri Jul 08 2022
 
Deep convection continues to quickly decrease near Bonnie, with a
small area remaining near and north of the surface center.  Dvorak 
satellite intensity estimates are falling, and a blend of 4 
0935 UTC microwave SATCON intensity values supports an initial 
intensity of 65 kt for this advisory.  Bonnie's moving over 25 deg 
C water with cooler oceanic surface temperatures and a drier, 
stable air mass along the forecast path of the cyclone.  Therefore, 
further weakening is likely with a loss of organized convection, 
and post-tropical status is predicted in 36 hours, possibly less.  
As shown in the global models and the NHC intensity forecast, 
Bonnie should degenerate into a trough in 4 days.
 
The initial motion is due west, or 280/17 kt.  Low- to 
mid-tropospheric easterly flow should steer the cyclone on a 
continued westward heading with a slight decrease in forward speed 
early Sunday.  The model guidance remains in good agreement with 
the future track of Bonnie through the period, and no appreciable 
changes were made from the previous advisory.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/1500Z 18.3N 120.4W   65 KT  75 MPH
 12H  09/0000Z 18.8N 123.0W   55 KT  65 MPH
 24H  09/1200Z 19.3N 126.7W   45 KT  50 MPH
 36H  10/0000Z 19.6N 130.3W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  10/1200Z 19.7N 133.7W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  11/0000Z 19.7N 136.8W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  11/1200Z 19.7N 139.7W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 96H  12/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Roberts
 
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