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Tropical Storm Bonnie Discussion Number  48
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP042022
800 AM PDT Sat Jul 09 2022
 
The last few deep convective cloud tops below -50C dissipated with
Bonnie at around 0600 UTC last night. In the absence of any deeper
convection since then, Bonnie's remaining time as a tropical
cyclone is fleeting. Subjective and objective Dvorak estimates
continue to decrease, and the initial intensity has been reduced to
35 kt in this advisory.
 
The initial motion continues just north of due west at 280/18 kt. As
Bonnie continues weakening, it will be increasingly steered westward
by the low-level trade wind flow. The latest track forecast is
largely an update of the previous one but just a bit faster,
remaining close to the center of the track guidance envelope.
 
Bonnie is now over sub-24C sea-surface temperatures and embedded
in a very dry, stable atmospheric environment. These factors are
expected to prevent additional deep convective activity over the
system. If deeper convection does not return soon near the center,
Bonnie could become a post-tropical cyclone as early as this
afternoon. This expectation is reflected in the latest forecast with
Bonnie becoming a remnant low in 12 h, with the closed circulation
opening up into a trough in 48 h.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  09/1500Z 19.5N 127.7W   35 KT  40 MPH
 12H  10/0000Z 19.6N 130.6W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  10/1200Z 19.6N 133.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 36H  11/0000Z 19.6N 136.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 48H  11/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Papin
 
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