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Tropical Storm Howard Discussion Number  15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP092022
800 PM PDT Tue Aug 09 2022
 
Howard continues to weaken as it moves over cool 25 degree C waters. 
Satellite images indicate that most of the deep convection is 
confined to the north of the center with thunderstorm activity 
dissipating on the south side due to dry air that is entraining into 
that portion of the circulation.  The initial intensity is nudged 
downward to 60 kt, making Howard a tropical storm again, based on a 
blend of the latest satellite intensity estimates.

Steady weakening is forecast to continue as Howard tracks over 
progressively cooler water and into a very dry environment. These 
factors should cause the storm to degenerate to a post-tropical 
cyclone in about 36 hours and dissipate in a few days. The NHC 
intensity forecast is a little lower than the previous one and near 
the IVCN and HCCA models.

Howard continues to move to the northwest at 9 kt. A gradual turn to 
the west-northwest is expected on Wednesday followed by a turn to 
the west on Thursday as the system weakens and becomes increasingly 
steered by the low-level flow. The NHC track forecast is a little to 
the north of the previous one, due to the more northward initial 
position.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  10/0300Z 23.1N 118.4W   60 KT  70 MPH
 12H  10/1200Z 23.6N 119.7W   50 KT  60 MPH
 24H  11/0000Z 24.2N 121.4W   40 KT  45 MPH
 36H  11/1200Z 24.7N 123.0W   35 KT  40 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
 48H  12/0000Z 24.9N 124.4W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 60H  12/1200Z 24.9N 125.9W   25 KT  30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 72H  13/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
 
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