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Tropical Storm Roslyn Discussion Number  16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       EP192022
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 23 2022
 
Satellite imagery shows that Roslyn has continued to move inland
over west-central Mexico this afternoon.  It appears that the low-
and mid-level centers have decoupled due to the system's interaction
with mountainous terrain and increasing southwesterly vertical wind
shear.  The initial intensity has been reduced to 40 kt, and is
based on a typical overland decay rate.  Continued rapid weakening
is expected, and the low-level center is likely to dissipate this
evening or overnight over central Mexico.
 
Roslyn is moving north-northeastward at about 18 kt.  The cyclone
or its remnants should continue move north-northeastward over
central and northeastern Mexico through early Monday.  A 12-hour
forecast position has been provided for the sake of continuity, but
it is expected that the low-level circulation will have dissipated 
by that time.
 
Key Messages:
 
1. Strong winds gusts, especially in mountainous terrain, will
continue near the track of Roslyn during the next several hours.
 
2. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding and possible
landslides in areas of rugged terrain over coastal west-central 
Mexico. 
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  23/2100Z 24.6N 103.5W   40 KT  45 MPH...INLAND
 12H  24/0600Z 26.8N 101.3W   20 KT  25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 24H  24/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
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Forecaster Brown
 
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