* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 05/27/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 38 43 49 53 56 59 61 65 68 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 38 43 49 53 56 59 61 65 68 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 30 33 36 38 41 43 46 49 SHEAR (KTS) 1 5 11 13 11 14 14 22 20 20 19 24 25 SHEAR DIR 48 130 158 168 155 150 141 145 129 118 97 86 72 SST (C) 29.2 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 30.5 30.6 30.6 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 151 151 152 154 158 161 164 165 165 167 167 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.3 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.5 -53.5 -53.2 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 75 78 80 78 75 81 80 83 78 78 77 78 82 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 12 14 14 12 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 136 137 151 152 142 141 121 119 107 95 95 91 102 200 MB DIV 77 90 106 81 85 98 116 91 77 65 76 69 67 LAND (KM) 364 375 387 378 368 319 289 247 223 185 197 205 197 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.9 10.4 10.9 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.3 12.3 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 90.0 89.9 89.7 89.8 89.8 89.9 90.4 90.8 91.2 91.5 91.8 92.0 92.3 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 1 1 2 3 3 3 3 2 1 2 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 33. 36. 38. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 9. 14. 20. 25. 30. 33. 35. 38. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 13. 18. 24. 28. 31. 34. 36. 40. 43. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 05/27/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 87.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 56% is 4.5 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 34% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 24% is 4.1 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 05/27/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED