* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 05/28/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 43 46 50 53 57 60 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 34 40 43 46 50 53 57 60 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 30 31 32 33 34 36 39 SHEAR (KTS) 6 10 13 12 10 19 16 24 23 18 18 20 22 SHEAR DIR 146 165 174 150 145 155 128 134 123 121 97 109 87 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.8 30.7 30.7 POT. INT. (KT) 152 150 151 152 153 155 160 164 166 168 168 168 169 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.0 -53.7 -53.0 -53.8 -53.2 -53.9 -53.2 -53.8 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 7 8 6 8 7 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 79 80 80 76 79 80 80 82 76 78 77 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 12 10 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 140 155 155 146 149 142 127 111 92 87 83 69 80 200 MB DIV 86 103 84 88 99 98 104 72 63 48 47 61 87 LAND (KM) 309 308 307 295 278 231 189 177 137 135 171 223 283 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.1 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.1 13.1 13.0 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 88.7 88.7 88.9 89.0 89.5 90.2 90.9 91.6 92.3 93.0 93.6 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 3 1 2 3 4 4 5 4 4 3 3 3 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 90/ 3 CX,CY: 3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 543 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 30. 34. 37. 39. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 6. 8. 14. 17. 22. 25. 28. 31. 35. 37. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 9. 15. 18. 21. 25. 28. 32. 35. 38. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 25% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED