* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 05/28/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 48 52 55 58 61 64 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 32 38 44 48 52 46 49 52 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 26 28 29 30 31 28 33 35 38 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 11 15 14 18 18 19 14 17 16 21 15 SHEAR DIR 183 153 150 146 149 134 118 85 66 63 51 59 93 SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.8 30.1 30.4 30.6 30.6 30.4 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 151 152 153 155 157 161 164 167 169 169 167 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -52.8 -53.8 -52.8 -53.6 -52.7 -53.5 -52.6 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 7 8 6 8 6 10 7 700-500 MB RH 79 78 80 82 81 82 82 82 81 81 79 79 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 12 11 10 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 147 135 145 150 149 136 125 108 93 103 103 109 94 200 MB DIV 84 92 114 111 100 107 104 95 92 84 35 82 50 LAND (KM) 230 224 199 178 158 111 39 15 17 0 37 111 193 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.3 10.6 10.9 11.2 12.1 12.8 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.2 14.3 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.0 87.9 88.0 88.0 88.5 89.1 89.9 90.7 91.5 92.4 93.5 94.7 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 65/ 4 CX,CY: 4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 16. 23. 29. 34. 37. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -9. -9. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 35. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 5. 7. 13. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 36. 39. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 100.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 34% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY