* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP902008 05/28/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 41 50 57 61 65 68 70 72 73 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 34 30 28 27 27 31 34 36 36 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 24 26 26 27 27 31 35 38 41 SHEAR (KTS) 5 5 9 8 3 7 7 9 7 8 9 17 18 SHEAR DIR 207 165 160 176 166 114 109 109 59 73 72 92 102 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.9 30.4 30.5 30.3 30.0 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 153 155 155 157 157 158 159 163 168 170 168 164 166 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -53.0 -53.4 -53.0 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 7 7 8 7 9 7 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 84 84 84 83 84 81 78 78 82 81 82 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 129 138 149 146 154 154 121 113 97 100 106 94 91 200 MB DIV 120 135 149 121 132 126 76 76 67 80 76 101 99 LAND (KM) 70 51 45 16 -11 -66 -130 -137 -64 71 173 165 203 LAT (DEG N) 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.7 12.3 13.7 14.6 15.2 15.2 14.8 14.4 14.3 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.4 86.4 86.3 86.6 86.9 88.0 89.3 90.8 92.1 93.5 95.2 96.9 98.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 6 8 8 8 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 80/ 7 CX,CY: 7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 477 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 31. 35. 38. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. 8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -11. -10. -10. -11. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 27. 33. 38. 41. 44. 46. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 16. 25. 32. 36. 40. 43. 45. 47. 48. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 131.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 74% is 5.9 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 57% is 6.8 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP902008 INVEST 05/28/08 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED