* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP822008 05/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS 21 27 31 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 15 16 17 18 15 13 12 6 8 11 1 3 16 SHEAR DIR 268 256 265 263 262 270 266 253 224 247 13 31 30 SST (C) 24.2 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.6 24.8 25.1 25.3 25.6 26.1 26.5 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 105 106 108 111 114 116 120 125 129 131 200 MB T (C) -56.7 -56.8 -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -56.9 -56.7 -56.9 -57.0 -57.2 -56.9 -56.5 -56.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 700-500 MB RH 13 13 13 11 12 14 16 16 18 18 19 21 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -59 -56 -50 -44 -39 -36 -27 -18 -19 -26 -32 -49 -55 200 MB DIV 5 2 2 -14 -1 -4 -19 -9 -5 -13 4 -18 -8 LAND (KM) 609 543 478 411 346 222 122 207 392 466 585 751 959 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.5 18.4 18.3 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.7 17.9 18.1 18.4 18.7 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 149.1 149.8 150.4 151.1 151.8 153.4 155.1 157.2 159.4 161.6 163.9 166.1 168.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 2.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 4. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -7. -9. -10. -9. -7. -2. 3. 7. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -7. -10. -10. -5. 1. 7. 11. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -1.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 39.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY