* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP012008 05/29/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 30 35 41 44 56 60 62 65 65 66 70 71 V (KT) LAND 25 30 35 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 32 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 27 27 27 31 33 SHEAR (KTS) 3 9 10 7 5 7 3 5 6 9 12 11 14 SHEAR DIR 144 151 162 150 144 144 275 236 66 59 74 90 72 SST (C) 29.1 29.2 29.3 29.4 29.4 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 154 156 158 159 159 157 160 162 160 159 159 160 160 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.4 -53.6 -52.9 -52.6 -53.6 -52.2 -53.1 -52.3 -53.0 -52.4 -52.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 7 8 6 11 8 10 7 8 700-500 MB RH 85 85 85 83 84 81 80 77 71 68 69 66 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 14 15 15 13 13 10 9 9 8 9 10 10 850 MB ENV VOR 132 140 141 141 146 132 110 105 114 99 113 109 105 200 MB DIV 148 142 132 117 107 97 70 40 78 53 62 45 52 LAND (KM) 69 80 20 -17 -59 -78 -163 -177 -120 -108 -93 51 190 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 10.9 11.7 12.7 13.6 15.2 16.3 17.0 17.2 17.0 16.8 16.4 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 86.5 86.6 86.7 87.2 87.7 89.0 90.5 92.0 93.7 95.5 97.7 100.1 103.0 STM SPEED (KT) 6 9 9 11 10 10 8 8 8 10 11 13 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 3 CX,CY: 2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 524 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 24. 31. 34. 37. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 8. 7. 7. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -1. 0. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 12. 22. 26. 30. 35. 37. 39. 42. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 4. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 16. 19. 31. 35. 37. 40. 40. 41. 45. 46. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP012008 INVEST 05/29/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 129.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 72% is 8.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 44% is 7.5 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP012008 INVEST 05/29/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY