* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP822008 05/29/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 16 23 28 32 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 19 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 16 17 14 15 16 11 10 7 8 7 3 10 18 SHEAR DIR 256 265 263 262 263 264 256 236 232 253 116 18 31 SST (C) 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.9 26.3 26.6 26.7 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 106 106 107 109 113 115 118 123 127 130 131 200 MB T (C) -56.8 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -56.9 -56.8 -56.7 -57.0 -57.1 -56.9 -56.6 -56.3 -56.1 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 13 13 11 12 13 15 16 17 17 19 19 24 26 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -57 -51 -45 -41 -37 -24 -21 -14 -20 -22 -41 -46 -58 200 MB DIV 2 3 -17 -2 -7 -16 -13 0 -12 -24 -22 -10 -10 LAND (KM) 555 484 414 345 281 176 133 282 438 523 667 868 1094 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.6 18.5 18.4 18.2 18.0 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.2 18.5 18.6 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 149.6 150.3 151.0 151.8 152.5 154.2 156.1 158.2 160.5 162.8 165.0 167.3 169.7 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -10. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -9. -8. -5. 0. 5. 8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -9. -4. 3. 8. 12. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 38.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 2.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY