* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP822008 05/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS 18 23 27 30 V (KT) LAND 20 20 20 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 18 17 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 16 16 15 14 9 6 10 13 14 20 24 SHEAR DIR 256 289 289 320 323 293 282 276 304 356 3 356 346 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.5 24.8 25.0 25.3 25.5 26.0 26.3 26.5 26.6 POT. INT. (KT) 104 104 106 107 107 111 113 117 119 124 127 129 130 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.0 -56.7 -56.8 -56.8 -56.6 -56.6 -56.8 -56.9 -56.8 -56.7 -56.4 -56.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 14 12 14 15 15 18 16 17 19 23 23 25 27 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -52 -50 -43 -38 -35 -23 -13 -21 -32 -34 -40 -40 -45 200 MB DIV 5 -22 -5 -4 -20 -13 -1 8 -5 -15 -10 -23 -37 LAND (KM) 511 435 360 292 231 129 163 362 478 593 778 1001 1245 LAT (DEG N) 18.7 18.7 18.6 18.5 18.3 18.1 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.1 18.1 18.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 150.0 150.8 151.5 152.3 153.0 154.7 156.8 159.1 161.4 163.7 166.0 168.4 170.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 3. 6. 9. 11. 14. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -7. -6. -3. 0. 4. 6. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 7. 8. 10. 11. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -2. 3. 7. 10. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 40.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)