* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP832008 05/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 19 V (KT) LAND 20 19 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 30 26 26 25 19 21 30 26 20 12 10 9 4 SHEAR DIR 255 250 256 272 288 271 265 251 249 252 214 183 131 SST (C) 23.5 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.8 24.1 24.2 24.4 24.5 24.7 25.1 25.4 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 95 96 97 98 98 102 103 106 107 109 114 117 120 200 MB T (C) -57.2 -57.3 -57.2 -57.2 -57.2 -57.1 -57.0 -56.8 -57.0 -56.9 -56.9 -56.6 -56.5 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 13 12 12 12 13 18 16 21 22 23 26 27 28 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -41 -34 -30 -29 -27 -15 -9 -5 -15 -13 -30 -25 -40 200 MB DIV 19 -10 0 5 4 -10 -13 -12 -14 -4 -11 -27 -21 LAND (KM) 1059 1007 955 904 853 729 602 452 285 146 109 301 366 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.0 18.0 18.0 18.1 18.3 18.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 144.8 145.3 145.8 146.3 146.8 148.0 149.3 150.8 152.6 154.5 156.5 158.7 160.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 10 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 2.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -1. 2. 4. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -4. -8. -9. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 11. 13. 14. 17. 20. 23. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -8. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. -11. -10. -10. -9. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -18. -20. -19. -15. -9. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 8. 6. 5. 4. 4. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -4. -6. -7. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -12. -18. -21. -18. -12. -6. -1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP832008 INVEST 05/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 40.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.6 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)