* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALMA EP012008 05/29/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 41 47 52 57 66 70 71 69 65 63 65 66 V (KT) LAND 35 41 34 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 26 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 33 31 29 28 28 27 27 27 29 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 5 4 4 5 10 9 16 23 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 188 178 200 211 147 283 312 301 307 290 286 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.2 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 157 157 156 153 155 156 154 154 157 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -54.1 -52.9 -53.6 -53.0 -53.8 -52.9 -53.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 8 7 6 8 6 9 7 9 6 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 84 83 81 82 83 80 75 68 68 68 64 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 12 12 12 12 11 10 8 8 7 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 134 132 128 129 129 114 86 88 74 81 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 113 108 101 112 98 69 39 66 41 29 19 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 52 8 -35 -69 -124 -4 -119 -107 -30 -3 -33 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.3 12.0 12.6 13.4 14.2 15.7 17.1 17.9 18.4 18.7 18.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 86.7 86.8 86.9 87.3 87.7 88.5 89.4 90.5 91.0 91.2 91.9 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 7 9 9 8 7 5 2 2 3 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 0/ 5 CX,CY: 0/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 542 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 11. 16. 21. 25. 28. 29. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -11. -11. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 16. 25. 29. 31. 31. 28. 27. 28. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 6. 12. 17. 22. 31. 35. 36. 34. 30. 28. 30. 31. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP012008 ALMA 05/29/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 106.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 95.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 90% is 7.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 81% is 9.7 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 60% is 10.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)