* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * INVEST CP822008 05/29/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 26 24 22 22 23 25 26 26 V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 26 24 25 24 25 27 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 35 35 35 32 29 28 27 25 24 23 22 SHEAR (KTS) 16 18 18 15 11 9 2 7 5 10 14 16 23 SHEAR DIR 274 277 308 325 310 293 197 190 142 105 104 102 74 SST (C) 24.3 24.3 24.3 24.4 24.5 24.6 24.9 25.2 25.5 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.5 POT. INT. (KT) 103 104 104 105 106 107 111 114 117 118 120 124 128 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -56.9 -56.9 -56.9 -57.0 -57.0 -57.1 -56.8 -56.9 -56.6 -56.4 -56.2 -55.8 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 6 6 700-500 MB RH 12 12 14 19 20 21 22 24 28 27 33 32 37 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -42 -39 -36 -34 -31 -28 -28 -32 -29 -41 -45 -56 -66 200 MB DIV -10 -7 -9 -25 -29 -5 -22 -15 -27 -23 -19 -29 -15 LAND (KM) 536 476 416 342 268 163 20 9 122 114 111 173 361 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.0 19.1 19.5 19.9 20.2 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 149.8 150.4 150.9 151.6 152.3 153.3 154.6 156.1 157.6 158.9 159.7 161.3 163.3 STM SPEED (KT) 3 5 6 7 6 6 7 7 7 5 6 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -1. 1. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 5. 5. 4. 3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 17. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -7. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -10. -9. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 74.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 39.4 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP822008 INVEST 05/29/08 18 UTC ## ## ERR=3, IR & SHIPS DATA > 12h APART