* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP862008 05/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 38 38 35 32 28 27 29 32 33 34 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 38 38 35 32 28 27 29 32 33 34 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 42 42 41 38 35 33 31 31 30 28 27 SHEAR (KTS) 27 23 16 13 18 11 7 5 7 13 14 16 14 SHEAR DIR 256 279 295 280 277 281 232 217 104 103 104 77 55 SST (C) 23.7 23.8 23.9 24.1 24.2 24.3 24.4 24.8 25.2 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 98 99 100 103 103 105 106 110 114 115 117 121 127 200 MB T (C) -57.1 -57.1 -57.2 -57.2 -57.3 -57.3 -56.8 -56.8 -56.7 -56.6 -56.2 -55.8 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 4 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 5 5 5 6 700-500 MB RH 11 13 16 16 20 23 25 27 29 29 33 31 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -28 -25 -27 -23 -23 -25 -12 -26 -28 -52 -33 -53 -59 200 MB DIV 0 1 -4 -17 -18 -35 -2 -29 -7 -14 -5 -14 -11 LAND (KM) 908 840 771 681 591 442 283 104 8 61 55 78 247 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.7 18.7 18.8 18.9 19.1 19.4 19.9 20.3 20.7 20.8 21.2 21.9 LONG(DEG W) 146.2 146.9 147.5 148.4 149.2 150.6 152.1 153.9 155.7 157.2 158.1 159.8 162.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 8 7 7 8 9 8 6 6 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 658 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 3.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 8. 6. 5. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 17. 20. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -9. -8. -7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -5. -5. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 6. 5. 4. 5. 5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 0. -1. 1. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -7. -8. -6. -3. -2. -1. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP862008 INVEST 05/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -7.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 40.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.5 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)