* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALMA EP012008 05/30/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 54 59 65 72 79 83 83 80 77 79 80 V (KT) LAND 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 34 34 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 45 38 33 30 29 27 27 34 39 32 29 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 2 2 2 2 7 2 8 6 13 17 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 196 286 301 334 207 317 360 357 30 360 39 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.0 29.0 29.6 29.4 28.7 28.3 28.3 28.7 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 156 155 155 162 159 151 145 146 152 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -53.6 -53.1 -53.5 -53.0 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 8 8 6 10 8 11 8 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 83 83 83 83 80 74 70 62 57 50 55 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 12 12 11 12 11 12 13 13 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 113 112 107 95 75 87 86 94 68 70 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 120 112 91 79 68 38 51 31 11 -9 1 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -44 -92 -148 -70 -14 -156 -13 42 19 -47 -247 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.6 14.3 15.0 15.7 17.2 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.5 18.8 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.1 87.2 87.3 88.0 88.7 91.0 92.8 94.9 96.0 96.8 98.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 10 12 12 10 8 4 7 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):350/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 525 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 22. 23. 23. 24. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 15. 22. 29. 34. 36. 34. 31. 32. 33. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. 1. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 10. 14. 20. 27. 34. 38. 38. 35. 32. 34. 35. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP012008 ALMA 05/30/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 94.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 84.6 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 76% is 6.1 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 55% is 6.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 34% is 5.9 times the sample mean( 5.8%)