* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALMA EP012008 05/30/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 27 26 27 29 32 39 45 47 47 46 51 57 V (KT) LAND 30 29 31 28 27 27 33 39 42 42 35 30 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 30 25 26 26 30 33 36 40 37 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 6 4 5 3 7 12 10 10 12 13 10 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 328 356 342 332 339 325 307 327 317 341 29 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.3 28.9 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.2 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 154 151 153 154 156 156 151 147 146 146 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -53.4 -53.2 -53.5 -53.2 -53.2 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 7 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 81 79 78 73 68 62 59 53 55 51 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 12 13 13 12 13 15 14 13 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 113 103 91 80 67 65 55 85 82 82 79 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 103 97 85 71 49 44 34 34 16 16 11 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -123 -75 36 -38 -127 -43 99 171 216 171 -54 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.1 15.1 16.0 16.7 17.4 18.5 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.5 19.7 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 87.4 87.8 88.1 88.8 89.4 90.8 92.0 93.3 94.1 95.0 97.0 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 7 10 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):345/ 10 CX,CY: -2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 533 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.1 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 3. 5. 10. 16. 22. 26. 29. 30. 31. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -6. -11. -15. -17. -20. -22. -22. -20. -18. -17. -14. -10. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -3. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -6. -5. -2. 5. 12. 16. 16. 15. 20. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -4. -3. -1. 2. 9. 15. 17. 17. 16. 21. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP012008 ALMA 05/30/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -25.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 81.0 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)