* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * ALMA EP012008 05/30/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 23 24 25 27 33 38 43 46 49 51 57 62 V (KT) LAND 25 28 26 26 26 27 35 40 42 45 35 29 28 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 23 24 25 26 31 34 38 43 35 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 3 4 7 8 6 9 10 14 8 4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 98 72 45 18 5 336 322 263 301 309 23 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.0 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.1 29.3 29.2 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 153 155 155 157 156 151 146 145 148 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -53.6 -53.1 -53.6 -53.7 -53.0 -53.6 -53.3 -53.9 -53.4 -53.7 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 8 7 6 9 8 11 9 12 8 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 82 78 79 75 73 72 61 57 50 49 48 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 119 100 88 74 63 71 57 70 63 71 62 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 102 93 81 55 35 39 14 13 -23 -2 3 N/A N/A LAND (KM) -70 12 -28 -115 -163 -3 100 181 200 108 -132 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.8 16.6 17.2 17.8 18.7 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.5 19.6 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 88.0 88.4 88.7 89.3 89.9 91.2 92.4 93.7 94.6 95.7 97.8 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 7 7 6 5 8 11 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 11 CX,CY: -3/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 10. 17. 23. 28. 31. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 8. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -19. -19. -17. -15. -15. -12. -9. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -4. -3. -2. 3. 9. 15. 19. 22. 25. 30. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -2. -1. 0. 2. 8. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 32. 37. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP012008 ALMA 05/30/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 73.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 70.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.3 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%)