* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902008 05/31/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 35 39 43 49 56 64 72 76 78 79 76 76 V (KT) LAND 30 35 30 28 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 28 28 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 31 35 SHEAR (KTS) 9 14 15 11 7 14 3 4 8 9 14 14 13 SHEAR DIR 337 342 358 357 315 326 28 356 91 87 79 112 92 SST (C) 28.4 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.1 29.5 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.4 29.4 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 140 146 147 150 151 158 161 159 157 157 157 159 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 135 136 138 139 145 150 149 148 148 148 151 151 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -53.8 -53.2 -52.9 -53.6 -52.6 -53.3 -52.4 -53.0 -52.2 -52.9 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 9 9 7 10 8 10 8 10 9 11 700-500 MB RH 81 78 74 72 73 71 69 66 69 68 67 58 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 13 13 15 14 14 14 13 12 11 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 64 62 61 71 74 77 95 98 114 103 98 70 84 200 MB DIV 81 56 51 59 73 50 56 23 47 30 41 46 34 LAND (KM) 75 5 -63 -127 -148 -78 -88 -96 -102 -98 -47 44 140 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 17.2 17.5 17.7 17.9 17.9 17.8 17.4 17.0 16.7 16.6 16.3 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 87.5 88.2 88.8 89.4 90.0 91.1 92.3 93.8 95.3 96.8 98.3 99.7 101.2 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 6 6 6 5 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 58 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 509 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 16. 23. 33. 41. 48. 52. 52. 49. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 9. 13. 19. 26. 34. 42. 46. 48. 49. 46. 46. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 05/31/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 64.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 83.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 44% is 3.6 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 30% is 3.9 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)