* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL902008 05/31/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 35 37 40 47 54 57 59 61 58 59 56 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 32 40 35 30 28 30 28 29 26 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 31 34 32 28 27 31 32 33 33 SHEAR (KTS) 13 12 11 12 10 5 7 13 17 18 19 20 21 SHEAR DIR 320 324 304 318 328 337 17 66 85 80 102 90 115 SST (C) 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.2 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 142 144 147 152 158 155 148 153 157 154 152 148 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 133 135 140 146 145 141 147 150 146 143 138 129 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.5 -52.4 -53.1 -52.5 -52.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.5 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 7 10 9 11 7 9 7 9 7 700-500 MB RH 73 70 71 65 64 66 63 61 59 59 54 52 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 13 17 16 16 16 15 9 9 9 6 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 37 45 53 52 65 84 78 101 80 65 52 58 47 200 MB DIV 61 53 68 62 47 26 4 28 26 12 15 16 0 LAND (KM) -57 -135 -66 -17 31 33 -65 -175 -40 51 113 185 246 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.0 18.9 18.7 18.1 17.5 17.1 17.0 17.0 17.1 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 88.7 89.4 90.1 90.9 91.6 93.4 95.3 97.4 99.6 101.4 103.0 104.6 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 0 0 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 7 CX,CY: -3/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 711 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 11. 17. 22. 26. 29. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -4. -5. -5. -8. -7. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 5. 7. 10. 17. 24. 27. 29. 31. 28. 29. 26. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 5. 7. 10. 17. 24. 27. 29. 31. 28. 29. 26. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL902008 INVEST 05/31/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.2 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :3333.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)