* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ARTHUR AL012008 05/31/08 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 38 41 43 46 51 57 59 64 66 67 69 70 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 32 37 43 45 50 43 33 29 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 31 34 38 43 50 46 34 29 27 SHEAR (KTS) 16 20 19 19 11 11 10 9 8 9 8 8 9 SHEAR DIR 304 290 299 307 308 306 261 326 319 352 296 325 272 SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.5 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.4 29.2 28.7 28.6 28.9 29.2 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 142 148 151 155 154 152 145 142 147 152 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 128 130 136 140 140 137 137 131 128 132 137 147 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.2 -52.7 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 -52.6 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 7 9 9 9 9 11 11 11 11 12 700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 68 65 62 67 63 55 55 54 52 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 17 16 15 14 13 14 10 11 9 8 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 48 43 31 34 51 46 69 66 67 76 100 120 134 200 MB DIV 66 89 59 25 20 20 46 10 14 32 16 11 34 LAND (KM) -42 -90 -140 -53 24 42 1 3 39 -15 -120 -137 -111 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.3 18.9 18.5 18.4 18.9 18.6 17.7 17.4 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 88.6 89.0 89.4 90.2 91.0 92.9 93.0 93.5 94.7 95.4 95.7 95.5 94.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 8 8 5 2 4 5 4 3 3 6 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 2 13 0 0 10 0 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 21. 23. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -4. -4. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 24. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 8. 11. 16. 22. 24. 29. 31. 32. 34. 35. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012008 ARTHUR 05/31/08 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :5000.5 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)