* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ARTHUR AL012008 06/01/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 38 40 45 50 54 58 61 67 68 71 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 32 34 39 44 38 31 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 32 35 39 36 30 28 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 20 23 20 13 8 7 7 7 4 2 3 2 5 SHEAR DIR 293 300 314 326 274 340 355 14 343 263 341 99 344 SST (C) 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.1 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 145 149 152 156 157 152 143 142 143 145 147 145 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 133 137 141 144 145 139 130 127 128 130 132 128 129 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -53.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 9 9 8 11 8 12 9 13 10 13 700-500 MB RH 75 69 70 67 64 53 55 55 57 53 51 48 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 12 11 9 8 6 8 7 7 850 MB ENV VOR 45 35 41 58 64 56 76 67 92 87 119 92 118 200 MB DIV 85 46 32 27 28 23 12 20 21 23 16 15 29 LAND (KM) -106 -107 -44 6 33 60 28 -25 -77 -127 -184 -209 -163 LAT (DEG N) 18.4 18.6 18.8 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.9 18.6 18.2 17.9 17.9 17.9 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 89.2 89.9 90.6 91.4 92.1 93.6 95.0 95.7 96.0 96.5 97.3 97.6 97.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 7 7 7 5 3 2 3 3 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 0 1 20 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 655 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 32. 33. 36. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 15. 19. 23. 26. 32. 33. 36. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012008 ARTHUR 06/01/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :3333.3 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)