* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ARTHUR AL012008 06/01/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 37 39 42 47 54 60 66 69 71 72 73 V (KT) LAND 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 29 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 31 29 28 28 27 27 47 35 30 28 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 23 22 16 6 11 5 2 3 3 12 9 5 9 SHEAR DIR 299 320 327 259 302 269 321 250 306 275 358 356 2 SST (C) 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 148 151 154 156 158 156 151 147 144 145 144 142 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 141 144 142 137 131 129 129 129 126 126 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.7 -52.6 -52.6 -52.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 9 9 8 10 9 11 10 11 11 12 12 700-500 MB RH 70 70 71 68 63 62 61 59 58 52 53 46 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 13 13 13 11 11 8 7 7 7 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 39 39 51 62 56 68 78 75 84 99 104 97 112 200 MB DIV 56 48 51 49 35 72 27 36 19 20 -6 9 9 LAND (KM) -137 -95 -45 -38 -44 -32 -7 -7 -61 -93 -112 -108 -63 LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.3 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.2 18.0 17.9 17.9 18.0 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.4 90.9 91.4 91.8 92.9 93.9 94.6 95.1 95.5 96.1 96.3 95.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 1 2 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 1 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 605 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 19. 22. 24. 25. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -9. -9. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 19. 25. 31. 34. 36. 37. 38. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012008 ARTHUR 06/01/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 47.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.9 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)