* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ARTHUR AL012008 06/01/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 31 32 34 41 48 54 60 66 68 71 71 V (KT) LAND 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 29 V (KT) LGE mod 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 35 SHEAR (KTS) 24 17 5 12 7 2 6 8 3 6 6 7 8 SHEAR DIR 322 328 284 316 308 238 241 273 221 288 296 312 316 SST (C) 29.2 29.4 29.5 29.6 29.6 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.5 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 153 156 158 160 160 156 151 147 146 142 143 141 139 ADJ. POT. INT. 140 142 145 147 146 143 137 132 131 126 128 125 123 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.0 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.5 -53.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -52.4 -53.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 9 8 8 10 8 11 9 14 11 15 11 700-500 MB RH 72 72 69 64 63 63 58 56 51 49 46 50 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 13 13 11 11 10 8 8 8 6 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 45 54 61 54 57 75 65 76 78 97 75 82 55 200 MB DIV 61 56 61 42 37 38 45 21 10 5 6 12 21 LAND (KM) -101 -68 -66 -72 -75 -60 -44 -84 -113 -101 -60 -1 78 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.1 18.0 18.0 17.9 17.8 17.8 17.8 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.8 19.5 LONG(DEG W) 90.4 90.9 91.4 92.0 92.5 93.5 94.5 95.2 95.8 96.1 95.8 95.6 95.4 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 2 3 3 HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 1 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -9. -9. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 36. 38. 41. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 36. 38. 41. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012008 ARTHUR 06/01/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.1 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)