* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * ARTHUR AL012008 06/02/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 30 39 47 55 63 69 74 75 77 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 10 15 12 11 6 5 5 5 3 4 6 5 N/A SHEAR DIR 299 316 307 291 258 210 187 158 9 41 351 3 N/A SST (C) 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.9 30.0 29.8 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 158 162 164 165 167 164 159 155 152 149 146 143 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 151 152 153 155 152 147 140 136 133 131 127 N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -53.1 -53.7 -52.9 -52.4 -53.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.2 -52.8 -52.4 -52.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 7 10 10 7 10 9 13 9 14 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 70 68 68 65 68 66 66 60 56 52 50 52 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 13 12 12 12 10 8 8 7 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 50 60 69 75 84 84 101 86 103 83 N/A 200 MB DIV 78 59 67 75 59 58 22 36 24 19 21 21 N/A LAND (KM) -122 -150 -177 -153 -114 -77 -69 -120 -145 -174 -142 -114 N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.3 17.0 16.9 16.7 16.7 16.7 16.9 17.1 17.4 17.8 18.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 91.1 91.7 92.2 92.7 93.2 94.2 95.3 96.1 96.2 96.4 96.6 96.7 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 2 2 N/A HEAT CONTENT 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 507 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 12. 19. 24. 29. 32. 35. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -6. -8. -8. -10. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 14. 22. 30. 38. 44. 49. 50. 52. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 5. 14. 22. 30. 38. 44. 49. 50. 52. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL012008 ARTHUR 06/02/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.3 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) :9999.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean( 4.5%)