* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 06/02/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 54 61 65 69 71 75 78 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 37 46 41 33 29 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 12 11 12 13 13 8 4 6 7 5 5 SHEAR DIR 52 54 91 91 104 139 145 138 121 107 89 102 125 SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 166 166 166 166 166 165 162 159 157 155 152 152 150 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -52.9 -52.5 -52.8 -53.2 -52.0 -52.6 -51.6 -52.3 -51.9 -52.6 -52.2 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 11 9 7 10 8 11 9 13 9 12 10 700-500 MB RH 74 71 72 70 70 69 69 66 62 59 59 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 84 88 88 81 85 79 74 91 102 114 95 103 90 200 MB DIV 75 67 51 43 52 30 11 26 33 48 36 4 37 LAND (KM) 135 123 110 101 86 25 -17 -69 -89 -140 -157 -204 -149 LAT (DEG N) 14.0 14.3 14.6 14.9 15.1 15.8 16.2 16.7 16.9 17.2 17.6 17.9 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 93.5 93.7 93.8 94.0 94.1 94.5 94.6 94.8 95.2 95.8 96.5 97.7 99.2 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 4 5 7 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 4 CX,CY: 3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 767 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 19. 26. 33. 36. 38. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -7. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 23. 30. 37. 42. 45. 48. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 21. 29. 36. 40. 44. 47. 50. 53. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 06/02/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.6 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 141.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 82.2 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.5 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 49% is 4.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 21% is 3.6 times the sample mean( 5.8%)