* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP912008 06/03/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 29 30 36 38 42 42 46 48 50 52 V (KT) LAND 25 24 25 26 26 33 35 39 34 29 28 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 25 26 26 30 32 34 32 29 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 13 13 9 8 10 16 7 8 5 7 9 9 SHEAR DIR 297 264 282 296 286 280 323 313 328 284 282 246 242 SST (C) 30.4 30.3 29.9 29.6 29.2 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 167 167 163 159 155 150 149 146 147 145 143 139 137 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.7 -52.0 -52.5 -52.3 -53.1 -52.7 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 9 10 9 8 11 9 13 9 14 10 13 7 700-500 MB RH 76 75 73 69 70 64 59 56 55 55 56 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 13 11 9 7 7 7 5 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 69 64 56 39 39 44 37 52 41 37 26 19 35 200 MB DIV 65 72 35 1 14 20 0 6 7 -6 11 -6 6 LAND (KM) 17 -30 -92 -111 -48 30 68 36 -10 -98 -219 -374 -256 LAT (DEG N) 15.3 16.0 16.7 17.3 17.8 18.7 19.4 20.2 20.8 21.3 21.6 22.0 22.1 LONG(DEG W) 93.3 93.5 93.7 93.9 94.0 94.6 95.4 96.3 97.2 98.5 99.9 101.5 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 5 7 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 3 CX,CY: 0/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 530 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 17. 23. 28. 31. 32. 33. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -11. -13. -11. -12. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. 1. 7. 8. 14. 15. 20. 21. 23. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 4. 5. 11. 13. 17. 17. 21. 23. 25. 27. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP912008 INVEST 06/03/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 137.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 5.8%)