* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 06/09/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 37 41 47 50 51 49 47 45 43 38 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 30 29 28 27 27 28 26 24 22 17 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 25 26 26 27 30 31 31 29 26 SHEAR (KTS) 20 18 23 20 14 10 7 8 5 5 3 11 5 SHEAR DIR 58 47 54 55 45 56 359 29 357 56 6 107 192 SST (C) 29.3 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.4 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.1 24.4 22.5 21.2 POT. INT. (KT) 157 154 152 149 147 141 137 134 131 123 106 87 73 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -52.7 -52.1 -52.8 -53.3 -52.2 -52.8 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.4 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 8 7 9 6 8 5 5 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 68 68 64 66 64 59 55 54 44 42 40 39 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 75 83 77 68 66 38 47 42 29 24 14 13 200 MB DIV 50 65 73 33 3 9 -6 -4 -35 -33 -17 -5 -6 LAND (KM) 87 47 7 -9 -18 -83 -68 -15 84 225 188 174 319 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 19.0 19.6 20.1 20.5 20.9 21.3 21.7 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 100.0 100.4 100.7 101.2 101.7 103.0 104.1 105.3 106.5 107.8 109.4 111.1 113.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 380 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 9. 14. 19. 22. 24. 23. 21. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 19. 18. 15. 10. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 16. 22. 25. 26. 24. 22. 20. 18. 13. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 06/09/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 44.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.8 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 06/09/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED