* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP922008 06/10/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 45 44 40 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 45 44 40 36 31 26 20 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 26 26 27 26 25 23 20 16 SHEAR (KTS) 27 24 21 16 17 9 11 6 7 3 8 9 20 SHEAR DIR 52 56 53 42 48 43 57 57 77 53 112 185 171 SST (C) 28.9 28.7 28.4 28.1 27.8 27.3 27.1 26.7 25.6 23.5 20.8 19.2 18.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 150 147 144 141 135 133 129 119 97 69 61 62 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.8 -53.4 -53.0 -52.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 7 8 8 6 8 4 5 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 62 61 64 63 61 52 52 48 44 41 40 40 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 75 75 68 61 59 33 42 27 18 10 7 4 -15 200 MB DIV 73 47 12 15 39 -14 10 -14 -38 -12 9 10 22 LAND (KM) 161 138 88 45 22 19 43 124 255 100 177 242 393 LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.3 19.0 19.7 20.4 21.2 22.0 22.8 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 102.0 102.4 102.7 103.2 103.7 104.7 105.7 106.9 108.3 110.1 112.1 114.3 116.7 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 7 6 6 7 8 10 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 385 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 19. 16. 12. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 12. 9. 4. -1. -8. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 2. 3. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 19. 15. 11. 6. 1. -5. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP922008 INVEST 06/10/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 121.9 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 78.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.0 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922008 INVEST 06/10/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED