* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 06/11/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 30 32 38 45 53 59 64 66 67 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 26 26 26 27 31 34 38 41 42 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 24 25 26 27 27 32 38 43 47 49 SHEAR (KTS) 8 13 15 10 7 10 6 12 6 15 14 19 20 SHEAR DIR 169 154 170 167 173 181 134 183 261 214 236 235 253 SST (C) 27.5 27.6 27.7 27.5 27.1 26.5 27.2 27.3 27.9 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 132 134 135 132 127 120 128 128 136 141 139 136 136 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 140 141 137 131 121 129 128 134 138 136 133 132 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -53.4 -54.2 -53.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.9 -53.7 -54.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 10 9 7 7 10 7 11 9 12 9 11 10 700-500 MB RH 60 61 62 61 60 66 65 60 62 59 63 59 60 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 22 30 34 48 60 77 69 59 50 26 23 200 MB DIV 20 18 16 23 36 30 27 44 32 12 8 9 0 LAND (KM) 234 140 66 -36 -88 -39 -82 8 42 119 279 380 218 LAT (DEG N) 9.0 9.1 9.2 9.5 9.7 10.1 10.6 11.1 11.5 11.9 12.3 13.0 13.9 LONG(DEG W) 57.0 58.6 60.2 61.8 63.3 66.2 69.0 71.4 73.6 75.5 77.3 79.1 81.2 STM SPEED (KT) 14 16 16 15 15 14 13 11 10 9 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 39 29 4 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 3 43 39 31 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 29. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 20. 28. 35. 39. 42. 43. 43. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 7. 13. 20. 28. 34. 39. 41. 42. 41. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 06/11/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.8 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 13.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 24.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 06/11/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY