* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912008 06/12/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 40 46 50 54 52 50 49 48 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 26 30 36 42 47 50 48 46 46 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 25 28 32 36 39 42 42 39 35 32 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 5 9 12 2 18 19 25 34 35 32 24 SHEAR DIR 169 189 126 153 183 281 229 274 265 267 267 282 277 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.7 27.2 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 124 120 122 127 128 130 131 134 137 141 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 137 133 126 120 122 126 126 126 125 127 129 131 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -54.3 -53.8 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.2 -54.0 -54.7 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 10 9 7 10 8 10 10 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 61 61 59 61 65 63 64 65 64 62 59 55 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 7 6 6 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 33 32 38 47 47 51 48 52 46 21 -21 -43 200 MB DIV 36 20 23 51 36 28 57 47 32 19 -11 2 -13 LAND (KM) 125 27 8 -50 47 81 10 70 299 306 146 22 157 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.3 10.6 11.2 12.1 13.0 14.0 15.1 16.4 18.0 19.8 LONG(DEG W) 59.5 60.9 62.2 63.6 64.9 67.5 69.9 72.1 74.0 75.6 77.0 78.3 79.3 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 14 13 13 12 11 10 9 10 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 0 9999 4 7 2 29 43 51 58 70 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 5. 3. 0. -7. -12. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 28. 26. 25. 25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 15. 21. 25. 29. 27. 25. 24. 23. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912008 INVEST 06/12/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.6 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 12.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 2.0 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912008 INVEST 06/12/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY