* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST CP882008 06/15/08 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 18 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 75 73 71 63 60 54 42 43 40 44 35 19 20 SHEAR DIR 270 271 274 273 267 273 266 272 256 264 254 292 298 SST (C) 23.9 23.7 23.5 23.4 23.2 23.0 22.9 22.9 22.5 22.0 21.3 20.9 20.3 POT. INT. (KT) 99 99 97 96 94 91 89 90 85 80 73 70 65 200 MB T (C) -55.5 -55.6 -55.6 -56.3 -56.6 -58.0 -59.3 -59.6 -60.0 -59.9 -60.0 -59.8 -58.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 2 2 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 25 23 24 22 20 20 17 17 18 19 24 29 34 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 19 8 16 27 31 13 -19 -36 -63 -87 -91 -102 200 MB DIV 2 14 -1 -11 15 5 -9 -12 2 4 -17 6 -56 LAND (KM) 723 802 888 965 1047 1194 1299 1364 1439 1519 1670 1847 1606 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.6 22.4 23.8 25.1 26.3 27.7 28.9 30.2 30.9 31.4 LONG(DEG W) 147.9 147.2 146.4 145.8 145.2 144.2 143.7 143.7 143.8 143.8 143.0 141.3 138.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 10 10 10 9 8 6 7 6 7 7 10 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 778 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -7. -7. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 0. -7. -17. -29. -42. -53. -58. -59. -59. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 2. 4. 6. 11. 16. 20. 24. 27. 30. 33. 36. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -22. -34. -45. -55. -59. -60. -60. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -1. -2. -2. -4. -12. -22. -36. -47. -54. -57. -58. -57. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP882008 INVEST 06/15/08 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 68.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.8 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 44.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.4 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882008 INVEST 06/15/08 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=1 NFAIL=6 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY