* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME CP882008 06/18/08 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 40 35 30 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 40 32 32 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 43 40 37 32 25 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 56 58 54 49 52 40 30 27 26 28 37 35 49 SHEAR DIR 269 272 273 275 274 290 289 291 282 278 269 283 289 SST (C) 25.1 25.2 25.3 25.4 25.5 25.8 26.1 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.3 27.6 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 110 113 114 115 117 120 124 127 130 133 137 140 141 200 MB T (C) -56.6 -56.8 -57.2 -57.3 -57.0 -57.1 -57.0 -57.4 -57.4 -57.4 -57.0 -56.7 -56.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 32 33 32 30 30 31 26 28 28 33 35 37 35 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -61 -54 -58 -61 -51 -33 -29 -18 -36 -38 -56 -50 -52 200 MB DIV -24 -32 -17 2 -11 -9 -28 -18 -33 -19 -25 -33 -30 LAND (KM) 30 28 -4 34 73 123 206 334 498 706 932 1152 1376 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.6 20.7 20.7 20.7 20.4 20.2 20.1 20.2 20.4 20.7 21.0 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 155.4 155.9 156.3 156.9 157.4 158.9 160.5 162.3 164.2 166.4 168.7 170.9 173.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 6 7 8 9 9 11 10 10 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 7.5 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR -3. -6. -8. -12. -18. -23. -29. -33. -37. -39. -41. -43. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 16. 19. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -6. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -15. -20. -31. -39. -45. -49. -50. -50. -48. -47. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 3. 3. 4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. 0. 2. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -10. -15. -20. -31. -39. -47. -52. -50. -48. -46. -44. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX CP882008 NONAME 06/18/08 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 53.9 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -16.4 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 68.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 54.8 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 5.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP882008 NONAME 06/18/08 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY