* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * NONAME AL812008 06/18/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS 18 19 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 21 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 26 26 28 32 36 47 43 39 42 34 33 30 30 SHEAR DIR 293 295 285 280 277 263 270 262 283 282 280 282 279 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.6 27.1 27.6 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.1 POT. INT. (KT) 123 124 123 123 122 128 134 141 141 142 144 143 140 ADJ. POT. INT. 125 126 124 124 123 127 135 143 143 143 144 143 139 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.6 -54.9 -55.1 -55.1 -55.1 -55.4 -54.9 -55.2 -54.7 -54.6 -54.1 -54.5 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 11 10 700-500 MB RH 52 53 48 49 49 50 52 51 55 50 52 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 0 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 -13 -31 -35 -40 -48 -48 -50 -38 -33 3 15 -3 200 MB DIV 14 7 5 1 -1 16 -1 1 16 -12 -7 -6 -4 LAND (KM) 1057 990 954 922 928 683 530 369 213 143 153 89 326 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.6 13.1 13.6 14.0 14.9 15.4 15.8 16.0 16.5 16.7 17.0 17.3 LONG(DEG W) 46.0 47.8 49.5 51.3 53.0 56.3 59.7 63.3 67.1 70.7 74.3 77.8 81.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 16 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 HEAT CONTENT 14 15 15 15 17 30 39 53 47 67 61 71 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 639 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 10.0 (MEAN=68.6) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 4. 9. 16. 22. 28. 32. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -2. -8. -18. -29. -39. -46. -50. -50. -50. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 8. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -8. -2. 1. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 2. 3. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -4. -6. -9. -11. -8. -2. -1. ** 2008 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL812008 NONAME 06/18/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 29.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.5 Range: 25.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 56.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 7.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 0.0 to 132.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(12.3%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.8%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.5%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL812008 NONAME 06/18/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY