* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST EP932008 06/21/08 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 30 31 33 34 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 30 31 33 34 31 25 20 16 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 23 22 20 18 16 DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 13 10 11 9 6 14 22 22 19 33 38 52 SHEAR DIR 344 341 337 327 346 246 284 305 309 286 282 258 259 SST (C) 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.2 25.5 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.7 23.7 23.8 24.0 23.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 140 136 128 121 113 106 100 100 100 101 103 101 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.6 -54.0 -54.1 -54.7 -54.8 -54.9 -54.9 -55.1 -55.2 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 3 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 62 63 61 62 57 58 52 49 45 40 37 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 5 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR -6 -6 -6 -1 -7 0 11 14 24 18 25 15 13 200 MB DIV 23 22 26 10 20 28 21 10 -18 -3 7 37 24 LAND (KM) 1286 1363 1454 1537 1637 1874 2081 2300 2093 1808 1542 1267 991 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.4 15.6 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.6 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 116.8 118.6 120.3 122.1 123.8 127.3 130.3 133.0 135.5 138.2 140.7 143.2 145.6 STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 17 17 17 16 14 13 13 13 12 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 619 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.7) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 1. -1. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -12. -13. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 4. -1. -5. -10. -15. -19. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 6. 0. -5. -9. -13. -18. ** E. PACIFIC 2008 RI INDEX EP932008 INVEST 06/21/08 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.2 Range:-11.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.0 Range: 63.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.1 Range: 35.4 to 2.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 27% is 2.2 times the sample mean(12.5%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.3%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 5.8%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP932008 INVEST 06/21/08 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY